Three Up Three Down: Why the Phillies Will/Won't Win the East

As any Yankees fan can tell you, the problem with sky-high expectations is that they leave you with only two possible outcomes: satisfaction or disappointment. If, like me, you feel that a large element of a baseball fan’s joy is the game’s potential to surprise and delight--to give you more than you might reasonably hope for--the idea of "World Series or bust" might not seem all that appealing. Our surprise and delight came on that December night when the rumors gave way to fact that Cliff Lee once again was a Phillie; but as soon as he signed, the story of the 2011 season transformed into "World Series or bust."

Now, my belief is that any predictions made when it’s consistently 40-50 degrees but with warmer weather presumably on the way, about which two ballclubs will be left standing when the thermometer returns to that range on a downward trajectory, are an affront to the baseball gods—whom we’re trying to appease, after all. So I’m not going there. But it feels a bit safer, and probably more interesting anyway, to speculate on which teams might play into October. And maybe the exercise counters that expectations problem; it wasn’t so long ago that most of us would have been beyond thrilled with one division championship, so the idea that we’d shrug the Phillies’ fifth straight NL East title like we’re entitled to it doesn't, and shouldn't, sit very well..........